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 ROBBINS PENNY CONFECTION BOXING SKILL VENDOR TRADE STIMULATOR $1,630.00 (13 Bids) Time Remaining: 5d 2h 8m |
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Will a completely algorithmic / black-box trading dominated market be more easily prone to massive loses?
.
It looks as if in a few years > 90% of all investors / traders will either be individual black-box machines or algorithmic-strategy-leaning hedge funds / institutional-based computers, performing [quantitative] high-frequency trading --- most of them developing increasingly more refined programs and sophisticated technology to essentially chase after the same market signals.
The question is: Will this be a positive and stabilizing force, adding more liquidity to the market, and increasing its efficiency in the long-run, or will it lead to insurmountable and chaotic fluctuations and volatility [as it did with LTCM and others]; not just taking the traditional discretionary investment strategies [e.g. mom-and-pop investors/traders] out of the marketplace, but possibly resulting in more frequent market distress and widespread financial instability/crisis?
Your thoughtful answers are greatly appreciated.
.
I think this was true 10 years ago, and indeed it opened the door to market cascading as programs set in without human control or thought.
At the same time, I think it was intentional human manipulation that brought the grotesque crash of November '08. In my view (and I guess some will label this as "paranoid"), the real problem began years before when unprincipled insiders were given the means to create and manage various financial vehicles that were beyond the control (or even the immediate understanding) of any authority or overseeing body. In itself, this appears to be a 'Free Market Economy', just as the inventors and sponsors of the vehicles claim. But no one anticipated how corruption would take over, for instance the concept of intentional loss to cash in on hedge funds, with investment-management computer models and everyone else left completely in the dark about this strategy.
The problem is that many of these people who did hands-on investing were actually criminals. Thieves. They didn't just act like thieves by chance or accident or oversight or bad judgment. They did what they did because they thought like thieves. In fact, it's not unreasonable to say the consensus mentality at the time throughout the hierarchy of the financial world was simply a criminal one. The public -- indeed the government -- never dreamed that by giving responsibility of self-maintenance of financial structures to corporate America, that what would happen would be that corporate America would set itself to plain looting. "Circuit Breakers" there are, true. But in the present climate, that is like saying that bank-vaults have alarm-systems. Even in normal circumstances, a bank robber is already fleeing with his booty when the alarm goes off. But if it is the bank-manager himself who is stealing; that's obviously far worse; far more likely to cause real damage to those who trusted the institution.
I ask you: Whose worst nightmare would have included a Vice-President of the United States who would sponsor a war just to profit the corporation of which he was CEO? The equivalent is the priest who uses his position and mantle of moral standing expressly to abuse the children in his care. Like I said. "Paranoid". Or is it?
In fact, the widespread abuse of position and power across the board in American society (banks, attorneys, priests, politicians, athletes, broadcasters, etc., etc.) shows just how far we've sunk. What is more, the witchhunting mentality displayed by Nancy Grace, To Catch a Predator, and America's Most Wanted; or gleefully following Lindsay Lohan's or Mel Gibson's latest debacle is -- far from being a solution -- just more evidence of gross social decay.
My point in terms of your question is this. Turning over markets to computer programs is in fact something that can greatly influence markets, and eventually society. But beyond the "Crap In -- Crap Out" explanation of relying on such blind things to steer us, there seems to me to have been a point where we crossed the line as a society into the realm of plain insanity, that is, not knowing (or caring about) the difference between right and wrong.
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